Macau is facing a rapidly declining birth rate, which has become a significant concern for both the region and the broader context of East and Southeast Asia. According to recent data from the United Nations, Macau’s fertility rate has dropped to 0.68, one of the lowest globally, signaling a demographic crisis. Hong Kong and Taiwan are also experiencing similar trends with fertility rates of 0.73 and 0.86, respectively.
These alarming statistics reflect broader demographic patterns across China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and other neighboring regions, where fertility rates have plummeted in recent decades. In 2024, China’s fertility rate fell to 1.01 births per woman, while Japan’s birth rate has been on the decline for eight consecutive years, dropping to 1.22 births per woman in 2023.
This trend poses serious risks for future socio-economic stability. Countries with low fertility rates face the looming threat of population decline, which can undermine pension systems, strain healthcare, and reduce economic productivity. The United Nations reports that 45% of countries and regions are now seeing fertility rates at or above 2.1 children per woman, which is needed to maintain a stable population. However, over 13% of nations, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, continue to report high fertility rates above 4.0 births per woman.
In Macau, the fertility rate has been on a downward trajectory, with projections indicating that fewer than 3,500 births will occur in 2025, the lowest number since 2004. The number of births recorded in 2023 was 3,712, a sharp 43.5% decline from a decade ago and a significant drop from the 7,913 births in 1988. Lawmakers are expressing concern and calling for policy changes to address the situation.
Macau’s fertility issues have been exacerbated by delayed childbearing, with many women in affected regions now choosing to have children later, well into their 30s. The rising cost of living, including expensive housing, insufficient parental leave, and high childcare costs, are all contributing to the reluctance to have children.
Efforts to reverse the trend have included initiatives like promoting maternity leave and offering incentives, but these efforts have met with mixed results. For example, a government-sponsored birth encouragement video released by the Social Welfare Bureau (IAS) faced public criticism for oversimplifying the complexities of family life in Macau. The video, which featured a smiling baby and toddler, was seen by many as out of touch with the real struggles faced by families, including financial pressures and limited support for working parents.
To address these issues, lawmakers have suggested learning from policies implemented in mainland China, where a more family-friendly environment, including cost-sharing arrangements for maternity leave, has been promoted. Macau may need to adopt similar measures to support its citizens in balancing work and family life.
As fertility rates continue to fall, experts warn that unless these issues are addressed comprehensively, the region could face a demographic crisis with long-lasting effects on its economy and social systems.
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