Vietnam is grappling with a significant demographic challenge as its fertility rates plummet to unprecedented lows, prompting concerns about future population growth and economic stability. According to the Ministry of Health (MOH), the aging population and a sharp decline in birth rates pose critical issues for the nation. Asian women, including those in Vietnam, are experiencing some of the lowest birth rates globally, often citing financial constraints as a primary reason for having fewer or no children.
Quynh, a 32-year-old office worker in Ho Chi Minh City, exemplifies this trend. Despite having a stable job, she feels unable to afford raising another child under current conditions, including living in rented accommodations and facing income instability.
Recent statistics from the HCM City Sub-department of Population underscore the severity of the issue, indicating that women in the city now average only 1.32 children, down from 1.42 in the previous year. Over the past two decades, birth rates in the city have consistently remained below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, with figures ranging from 1.24 to 1.7.
Nationwide, Vietnam has maintained a replacement fertility rate since 2006 but saw it drop below two children per woman for the first time in 2023, marking a significant demographic shift since the launch of its population program in 1960. The General Statistics Office (GSO) reported a modest population increase of 835,000 people in 2023, bringing Vietnam’s total population to 100.3 million, a growth rate of 0.84% compared to the previous year.
The MOH warns that the declining trend in fertility rates is likely to continue, with significant disparities observed between different regions. Economically challenged areas tend to have higher birth rates exceeding 2.5 children per woman, whereas urban and more developed regions are witnessing a trend towards fewer or no children.
Le Thanh Dung, Director of the MOH’s Department of Population, emphasized the serious consequences of persistently low fertility rates, including an aging population, labor shortages, and strains on social welfare systems. Projections suggest that without intervention, Vietnam could face negative population growth by 2059 under the worst-case scenario, accelerating its status as one of the world’s fastest-aging populations.
In response, the government is revisiting population policies. The 2008 Ordinance on Population, currently under review, allows couples greater flexibility in family planning decisions, reflecting updated societal norms and the evolving economic landscape. A draft law is being prepared to provide clearer guidelines on family size, emphasizing individual choice based on financial and health considerations.
The MOH hopes that empowering couples to make informed decisions about family planning will help mitigate the demographic challenges ahead, ensuring sustainable socio-economic development for Vietnam in the years to come.
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