A recent United Nations report has revised its projections for global population growth, estimating a peak of 10.3 billion individuals around the mid-2080s—an earlier forecast than previously anticipated.
Despite ongoing population growth, the report highlights a significant slowdown, primarily attributed to decreasing fertility rates worldwide. Currently, the global fertility rate stands at 2.25 births per woman, a notable decline from the 3.25 births per woman recorded in 1990.
Global Fertility Trends
The report reveals that over half of the world’s countries now have fertility rates below 2.1 births per woman, the level necessary to sustain current population sizes without decline. Notably, one-quarter of the global population resides in countries where the population has already peaked. This includes nations such as Germany, China, and Russia.
Regional Fertility Rates
Africa continues to exhibit the highest fertility rates of any continent, with an average of 4.07 births per woman as of 2023. In contrast, Europe has the lowest fertility rate, averaging 1.4 births per woman last year.
Fertility Trends in the U.S.
In the United States, fertility rates hit a record low last year. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicates a 3% decline in fertility between 2022 and 2023, marking a sharper decrease compared to previous years. The rate had remained stable in 2022 and even increased by 1% in 2021. This decline follows a long-term trend of decreasing fertility rates in the U.S.
The shift in birth patterns shows a rising trend of women having children in their 30s, while the birth rate among women aged 20 to 24 has dropped by 4%. Economic conditions and changing societal norms, particularly since the 2008 recession, have contributed to this trend, according to Allison Gemmill, a professor of family and reproductive health at Johns Hopkins University.
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